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Months later, when you can finally see how a decision actually played out.
Run a retrospective on a decision I made a while ago. 1. Reconstruct what I believed at the time and how confident I was. Where I now describe it differently, point out the hindsight creeping in. 2. Which of those beliefs turned out to be right, wrong, or still unresolved? 3. Where was I wrong for a good reason (the evidence pointed that way) versus wrong for a bad reason (I did not look, or I wanted an answer)? Only the second kind is worth changing behaviour over. 4. What process failure, if any, would have caught this? Prefer a change to how I decide over a resolution to be smarter. 5. What is the single transferable lesson? If there is not one, say so. Manufacturing lessons from noise is how people overcorrect. The decision, what I believed, and what happened:
Confidence and hindsight. Calibrating how firmly to hold a view, recording the call, and judging it later on its merits.
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