What would change my mind?

Committing to a position, before the evidence starts arriving.

I hold the position below. Help me specify in advance what would make me abandon it.

1. Name the specific observations that should reduce my confidence. Each must be concrete enough that I would recognise it when I saw it, with a threshold where possible.
2. Name what would increase my confidence, and be strict: evidence that would be consistent with either answer does not count as support.
3. If you cannot find anything that would change my mind, say so plainly. That means I am holding this as an identity rather than a belief, and I need to know.
4. Where should I be looking for these signals, and how often?
5. Set a date to revisit this, based on when the evidence could realistically arrive.

My position and how confident I am:

Confidence and hindsight. Calibrating how firmly to hold a view, recording the call, and judging it later on its merits.