Calibrate my confidence

When you notice you have said "definitely" about something you have not checked.

Check whether my confidence matches my evidence.

1. Pull out each claim I have made and the confidence I expressed, whether stated as a number or implied by words like "obviously" or "probably".
2. For each, what does the evidence I actually have justify? Give a rough probability and say whether I am over- or under-confident.
3. Point out where I am confident because a claim is familiar rather than because it is verified. This is the most common cause of overconfidence.
4. Note anywhere I am hedging on something I genuinely do know, which is its own error.
5. Rewrite my strongest claims at the confidence the evidence supports.

Be blunt. Softening this defeats the purpose.

What I said:

Confidence and hindsight. Calibrating how firmly to hold a view, recording the call, and judging it later on its merits.