How confident should I be?

A belief you are about to act on.

Here is something I believe. Tell me how confident I should be in it, as a rough percentage, and what that number rests on. Then name the one piece of evidence that would move it furthest in either direction. Do not agree with me to be agreeable.

Belief:

Confidence and hindsight. Calibrating how firmly to hold a view, recording the call, and judging it later on its merits.