What happens after the thing I want happens?

Any change where the first-order effect is obvious and everyone stopped thinking there.

Trace the consequences of this decision past the first step.

1. **First order**: the immediate, intended effect. One line, we both already know it.
2. **Second order**: how do people respond to that effect? Who changes their behaviour, and in whose interest?
3. **Third order**: what does that response then cause, including effects that undo the original benefit?
4. **Incentives**: what does this reward, and what will people optimise for once they notice? Assume they are smart and self-interested.
5. **Irreversibility**: which of these effects would be hard to unwind if we changed our minds in a year?

Give me the one second- or third-order effect you think is most underrated here, and say why it is missed.

The decision:

Stress-testing a plan. Pre-mortems, arguing the other side, and following the consequences past the first order.