Chase a thread that has gone quiet

Three unanswered messages and you still need an answer.

This thread has gone silent and I need a resolution. Help me write the message that ends the ambiguity.

First tell me which is most likely, based on the thread rather than on optimism: they are avoiding the answer, they dropped it, it went to the wrong person, or the answer is no and they are not saying it.

Then write the message:
- Summarise where things stand in two neutral lines, with no scorekeeping about who owed what.
- Ask one closed question.
- State what I will do by default, and by when, if I do not hear back. Make that default something I can genuinely live with.
- No guilt, no "just circling back", no passive aggression dressed as politeness.

Also say who else I should copy in, if anyone, and how to do that without it reading as escalation.

Thread:

Outreach and chasing. Writing to people who owe you nothing, and nudging the ones who never wrote back.