Debug my mental model

When your predictions about a system keep turning out wrong.

Something behaves in a way I did not expect. My model of it is wrong somewhere. Help me find where.

Work like this:
1. Restate my model back to me as a set of explicit beliefs, including the ones I did not state but clearly assumed.
2. Identify which belief the observed behaviour contradicts.
3. Ask me what I would predict in two or three other situations. Use my answers to locate the faulty belief rather than guessing at it.
4. Once you have found it, tell me the correct belief, why the wrong one seemed to work until now, and what else I have probably got wrong as a consequence.

What I expected:
What actually happened:
Why I expected it:

Checking your understanding. Quizzes, teach-backs and gap hunts that find what you only think you know.